If we trust 2030 climate predictions, how much worse can it get, and what will be left to sustain?
By: Ernesto O. Cordero, PhD, MICD
Senior Director for Research and Development
Institute of Corporate Directors
The 2030 climate predictions paint a distinct picture of escalating global temperatures, rising sea levels and widespread environmental degradation. These forecasts, firmly rooted in robust scientific data, indicate that without swift and meaningful intervention, the world is hurtling toward irreversible climate change impacts. The severity of these predictions assesses the potential worst-case scenarios and critically evaluates what will be left to sustain in a world ravaged by climate-induced crises.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided a sobering assessment of the climate trajectory. According to the IPCC's 2021 report, global temperatures will increase by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by as early as 2030 if current trends persist. This seemingly moderate temperature rise could have catastrophic implications, exacerbating extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts and hurricanes. Additionally, melting polar ice caps will contribute to rising sea levels, threatening coastal cities and ecosystems. A study by Oreskes et al. (2019) highlighted the accuracy of past climate models in predicting global warming trends, affirming the reliability of current predictions. As such, the 2030 climate forecasts are not speculative but a logical extension of the damage already visible today.
Climate scientist Jem Bendell (2018) coined the term "deep adaptation" to describe the need for societies to prepare for inevitable disruption. This adaptation is necessary because, in the worst-case scenario, essential systems like agriculture, water supply and health care could fail.
A particularly alarming prediction comes from recent studies on permafrost thawing. As the Arctic warms, vast amounts of methane — an even more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide — could be released into the atmosphere, triggering a feedback loop of accelerated warming. In a study published in Nature Communications, Natali et al. (2019) estimate that permafrost thawing could release up to 240 gigatons of carbon, pushing the planet into an even more precarious situation. This process could accelerate climate change at a rate far beyond current predictions, making the 2030 outlook seem conservative by comparison. Climate-induced migration is a term used to describe the forced displacement of populations due to the impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and loss of livelihoods. It is already a reality, with populations in low-lying areas such as the Philippines, Bangladesh and the Pacific Islands being forced to relocate. According to the World Bank, by 2050, over 140 million people could be displaced due to climate-related factors.
Given the anticipated severity of climate impacts, the question arises: what will be left to sustain by 2030? Environmental, economic and societal systems as we know them are at risk of profound disruption. By 2030, we may see a world where biodiversity loss accelerates, with ecosystems struggling to adapt to new climate realities. Ecosystems such as coral reefs, which provide food and livelihood to millions, are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification and warming. Once lost, these ecosystems are unlikely to recover within any reasonable time frame, fundamentally altering the natural world. This unequal distribution of impacts was highlighted in the IPCC's 2021 report, which noted that marginalized communities are disproportionately vulnerable to climate risks. Societally, climate change will challenge governance structures as governments struggle to respond to increasingly frequent natural disasters and resource shortages. The collapse of food systems due to extreme weather could trigger widespread famine and civil unrest. According to the United Nations, food insecurity could double by 2030, affecting over eight hundred million people globally. The strain on social welfare systems will be immense, with many nations ill-prepared to manage the cascading impacts of climate disasters.
The window for meaningful action is closing. Progress in governance and policy responses has been made through international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord; current commitments are insufficient to meet the 1.5°C goal. According to Climate Action Tracker, under current policies, the world is on track for a 2.7°C increase by the end of the century. The question of "how much worse can it get" is not speculative; it is grounded in the current trajectory of global emissions and the undeniable science behind climate modeling. If we fail to heed these warnings, the world may find itself grappling with crises that threaten the very foundations of civilization. What will be left to sustain? A world irrevocably altered, with diminished ecosystems, fractured societies and deepening inequalities.
The time for action is now. We must act immediately to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change and adapt to the changes already underway. Whether it is "already too late" to address climate change is complex, and the answer depends on the scope and scale of action taken soon. While we have undoubtedly missed the window to prevent all negative impacts of climate change, it is not too late to mitigate its worst effects and adapt to the already underway changes. This is a collective responsibility, and only by working together can we hope to make a difference.
Disclaimer:
This article was originally published on October 17, 2024 in The Manila Times. It was authored by Dr. Ernesto O. Cordero, a member of the Institute of Corporate Directors.
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